The more rain we have this spring, the bigger the Lake Erie algae bloom this summer -- and it鈥檚 been a wet spring.
Algae blooms in western Lake Erie are primarily due to excess nutrients from fertilizer chemicals running off farm land. Some blooms can become toxic, shutting down beaches or sickening people and pets.
Rain helps phosphorus travel from farms to the lake through rivers including the Maumee in western Ohio 鈥� and tracking from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration can predict the size of an algae bloom.
This year鈥檚 started small, with little rainfall in March and April.
But as soon as May hit, 鈥渢here was huge rainfall events 鈥� I believe three to four inches over the area,鈥� said NOAA oceanographer Richard Stumpf. 鈥淭hat led to a big jump in how much water and how much phosphorus is going into the lake.鈥�
Stumpf says because of the rain, the amount of phosphorus pouring into the lake this year has surpassed levels in 2012 and .
With two months left in the phosphorus loading season, Stumpf says there鈥檚 a lot to learn about this year鈥檚 bloom.
鈥淭he big question now is, it鈥檚 been somewhat wet through the rest of May, and how much longer that will go into June before it finally starts to dry out,鈥� said Stumpf.
There鈥檚 one thing we don鈥檛 鈥� and won鈥檛 - know until later this summer: just how severe the algae bloom will be. Stumpf says NOAA is working on models to predict the bloom鈥檚 toxicity, but they鈥檙e not ready yet.
Early season projections through the end of July, when a twice-weekly forecast of the bloom will begin.
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