Like the cicadas -- only a lot noisier -- political ads are about to blanket Ohio and other swing states. And what鈥檚 coming is likely to be more negative, more misleading and more targeted than ever.
Where are the ads coming from and how are they trying to steer you?
For evidence, look to the 14 months leading up to the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary. More than 133,000 national broadcast and cable TV ads aired 鈥� at a cost of more than $156 million. Those numbers from thedon鈥檛 include efforts to sway hearts and minds inanyof the rest of the primaries and caucuses 鈥� including Ohio鈥檚 -- nor in the general election.
And while the ads started out on a positive note, they pivoted to nasty pretty quickly. And those who watch the claims and patterns of the ads say the reason is pretty simple:
An ever growing share of the ads and spending are being done by outside groups, rather than the candidates themselves or even political parties. Many are SuperPACS aligned 鈥� at least indirectly -- with the candidates. Others 鈥� often referred to as dark-money groups -- qualify under IRS codes for educational charities to keep their donors and spending more secret.
On the GOP side alone, ads from outside groups 鈥� as opposed to the candidates themselves -- are up more than 23,000 percent over 2008. And they already account for more than half the ads and three quarters of the spending in this presidential campaign cycle.It鈥檚 a dynamic tied to the U.S. Supreme Court decision in 2010 called.
-- one of the directors at the Wesleyan project and a professor at Washington State University -- says candidates are aware of potential backlash from attack ads. 鈥淏ut if it鈥檚 some group, especially a group you鈥檝e never heard of before, there鈥檚 no real accountability, no way to hold those groups responsible for attacks they (voters) may not like. And therefore, the groups can get away with it.鈥�
a lecturer at the University of Akron who specializes in commercial advertising, agrees outside groups make all the difference in tone.
鈥淚f brands could have outside political action committees, we wouldn鈥檛 want to turn on our TV sets, or listen to the radio or hear commercials.鈥�
What kind of rise are they getting?
Kennedy has spent a lot of time lately in the marketing lab at the University of Akron. One-by-one, she鈥檚 outfitted about a dozen people with delicate headgear to measure their reaction as they鈥檙e bombarded for about a half-hour with political ads. She鈥檚 measuring their EEGs, tracking their eyes and watching the tiniest of facial expressions. It鈥檚 all common stuff in brand research. What she wants to find out is if it works in political advertising, too.
鈥淥ur goal is to really look at how do these ads perform and what emotional response do they elicit, unrelated, somewhat to people鈥檚 political views.
Separate from the biometric readings, she asks people to rate the ads by five measurements: how pleasant, important, informative, believable and fair. But the axis of two of those points is what really matters: Pleasant and informative.
And pleasantness is very much in the political eye of the beholder.
For someone like Sheri Risaliti 鈥� a study participant, Bernie Sanders supporter 鈥� and no fan of Ted Cruz: 鈥� 鈥淚 really didn鈥檛 like anything with Ted Cruz in it. That picture of him, just revulsion.鈥�
Then there鈥檚 Amy Schwan, a Donald Trump supporter, who can鈥檛 stand Hillary Clinton.
Kennedy presses her.
鈥淚s there any ad that you could watch for Hillary without cringing?鈥�
鈥淢aybe,鈥� Schwan responds. 鈥淚f she wasn鈥檛 speaking or if her face wasn鈥檛 on it. If it just maybe talked about her accomplishments.鈥� Then she adds quickly, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think there are any.鈥�
Beyondpolitics
ButKennedy says some ads transcend political points of view 鈥� both conscious and subconscious.
Just about everyone agrees a Bernie Sanders ad set to Simon and Garfunkel鈥檚 鈥淎merica鈥� is very pleasant -- and very meaningless.
Everryond says an ad featuring a nearly nude photo of Melania Trump is out of bounds.
And a 鈥淟ying Ted鈥� Cruz ad -- featuring his increasingly elongated nose wrapping around his neck 鈥� most folks saw it as 鈥渃reepy,鈥� even if they thought it was true.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDumsN1NCGg
What鈥檚 out of bounds?
Both the Lying Ted and First LadyMelaniaads are attack ads paid for and distributed by outside groups. They鈥檙e the kind of ads most people say they hate. But if trends hold, those are the ads that are likely to pound voters in swing states over the next six months.
After all, 60 percent of the ads went on the attack in 2012, up from 50 percent in 2008 and less than 30 percent in 2000.
who teaches political advertising at Kent State University, says the reason is pretty simple.
鈥淲hen you attack the other side, that鈥檚 when you open up the idea of persuasion. You may not at a conscious level have your audience saying, 鈥極h I鈥檓 really doubting this candidate now.鈥� But at kind of a subconscious level, they鈥檙e saying, 鈥榃ell, maybe there is something to this attack. Maybe this person isn鈥檛 who I thought they were.鈥�
York adds a huge caveat. The pool of persuadables is a really shallow one.
鈥淪ome research has shown negative advertising can only swing about 1 percent of voters either way. So if you want to attack, attack, attack an opponent, you鈥檙e not going to get a lot of return on investment.鈥�
Then he adds a caveat to the caveat: Sometimes, in some swing states like Ohio, 1 percent is all you need.
Not all negative ads are equal 鈥� or bad
Most people see negative ads and attack ads as the same thing 鈥� and political scientists define negative advertising as anything that mentions an opponent鈥檚 name. But not all negative ads are created equal.
There are the more informative 鈥渃ontrasting鈥� ads that compare positions and resumes of candidates. And the Wesleyan Project鈥檚 Ridout says they can offer a big bonus for voters.
鈥淚t can sometimes make them want to learn more information about the candidates. Negative ads are also typically more informative. Your typical positive ad is one in which you meet their family, they say they share your values and you don鈥檛 learn much beyond that.鈥�
Contrasting political ads have their commercial-brand parallels -- the Coke-Pepsi wars, for example.
So do positive ads. The University of Akron鈥檚 Kennedy says the logic of positive political ads is roughly the same as why Buick wants someone who recently bought a Buick to watch its commercial.
鈥淚t鈥檚 really important to reinforce how you feel about your car and your product so that you spread that message around. 鈥� It鈥檚 very important for candidates to do this. It keeps people energized and motivated.鈥�
And commercial advertising even has its equivalent of attack ads. One example is those pitching home security systems with a message of fear.
But political advertising is where the image of the world as ominous place takes shape most often.
And says there鈥檚 a risk when those ads crowd onto the airways.
鈥淚f you have two candidates going at it with negative ads back and forth being highly uncivil, it could have an effect. Especially with moderate voters, you get a demobilization effect, where they just kind of turn off, 鈥榯his is a nasty campaign, I just want to stay home.鈥欌��
Unless, he notes, that鈥檚 the purpose.
Here are some tips to help you navigate your way through political ads over the months to come:
- 1) Ask who is responsible for the ad. If it鈥檚 a candidate, that answer is easy: The ad will say so. If it鈥檚 a superPac, especially with a some generic name that sounds like a dozen other groups with the word 鈥淎merica鈥� somewhere in it, you may need some help. And you can find that help with sites like , , the Sunlight Foudation鈥檚 and
- 2) Look beyond the imagery and focus on substance. Explains Travis Ridout of 鈥淚f we peel back the scary images, the scary music, all of those elements of the ad that are designed to make you feel a particular way, what is the actual message in that ad? Is there any message beyond, 鈥榊ou should be scared of this candidate?鈥欌�� One way to take a look at the range of claims being made is to compare:
- 3) Take a look at the facts, and get help doing that. Political fact-checking is a cottage industry of its own. Some that have been doing it for a while are (They pay attention to more than just ads; debate and speech rundowns are available as well) and . Both are associated with the University of Pennsylvania鈥檚 Annenberg School of Public Policy. Another option:
- 4) Pay attention to who is paying attention to you 鈥� and how. Political ad micro-targeting is expected to rise to a whole new level this year. So you may get an ad on your computer tailored around the patterns of sites you visit. Or on your TV based on the pattern of shows you watch. Or in your mailbox based on all of the above. You aren鈥檛 likely to stop it even if you want to. But you might want to ask your neighbor or coworker what they鈥檙e seeing. And if you鈥檇 like more help figuring it out, take a screen shot or a picture and send it to XXXX. We鈥檒l be happy to help you sort through it.
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